I feel you on this issue, i think i have the same ghost AT Temp problem....so I put a new trans harness on the trans, it was like 225$ from subaru, the reason i did this is because my trans was rebuilt by the factory around 40k miles ago (even though the car is 99 forester, i was noted on the car fax and the tranny has the rebuilt plate riveted on it still) so i know it's worth keeping...at the same time i put a new harness in i replaced the at temp sensor that sits in the pan submerged in A/T fluid. I was able to get the light from coming on as frequently as it used to but similar to your problem, it does still come on every once in awhile. I can't figure out what causes it, I've done the secret handshake spoob, and it just says at temp sensor but i already know this...so that's no help...I've also replaced my TPS with a brand new one from Subaru and checked all the solenoids in the trans pan and even picked up a second TCM like you and it solved the problem for a long time until it came back and now it does it when it wants to....i can almost be like coasting abt to stop then give it gas, and it's like i catch it in between down and upshifting and it'll set the light off, i think it's electrical in some way but really i can't tell...it doesn't do it every time but i could have just started the car and go not even 2 miles down the road and the light comes on, it's still cold! and it says AT Temp...so i know it's not the sensor this time, I've checked all grounds and even made more grounds on the engine and tranny to help...i wish i could offer advice but I'm almost in the same boat...I'd just say to check your grounds if you did anything with cables and like was already mentioned, make sure the plugs are tight together...